Shares of Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) are making a strong comeback as they have jumped 40.04% since bottoming out at $ 41.63 on Jun. 27, 2016. Thanks to a rise of almost 0.53% in the past five days, the stock price is now down -1.31% so far on the year — still in weak territory. In this case, shares are down -9.76% from $ 63.4 , the 52-week high touched on Mar. 16, 2017, and are keeping their losses at 20.96% for the past 12 months.
Is It Worth the Risk?
Brokerage houses, on average, are recommending investors to hold Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)’s shares projecting a $ 58.58 target price. What do this target means? Price targets reflect what the analyst believes a stock will be worth four quarters into the future. Are investors supposed to sell when the stock hits the target? Price targets frequently change, depending on the outlook for a company’s earnings. Sometimes it may seem like it, but analysts don’t just pull their price targets out of thin air. Typically, they estimate what the company’s earnings and cash flow will be for the next couple of years, and then apply a ratio – such as a price-to-earnings ratio – to those estimates to determine what the future stock price should theoretically be.
Revenue Growth Rates
HOG’s revenue has grown at an average annualized rate of about 2.5% during the past five years. However, the company’s most recent quarter decrease of -14.2% looks unattractive.
While there are a number of profitability ratios that measure a company’s ability to generate profit from the sales or services it provides, one of the most important is the net profit margin. It tells us what percentage of revenue a company keeps after all its bills are paid. While the higher this number is, the better, there is no gold standard. That’s why this number shouldn’t be looked at in isolation, but should be compared to a company’s peer group as well as its sector. Currently, Harley-Davidson, Inc. net profit margin for the 12 months is at 10.93%. Comparatively, the peers have a net margin 13.15%, and the sector’s average is 12.41%. In that light, it seems in weak position compared to its peers and sector.
HollyFrontier Corporation (NYSE:HFC) is another stock that is grabbing investors attention these days. Its shares have trimmed -20.66% since hitting a peak level of $ 37.98 on Apr. 27, 2016. Thanks to an increase of almost 7.92% in the past one month, the stock price is now with underperforming -11.21% so far on the year — still in weak zone. In this case, shares are 34.92% higher from $ 22.07, the worst price in 52 weeks suffered on Jul. 06, 2016, and are keeping their losses at 20.37% for the past six months.
Trading The Odds
The good news is there’s still room for the share price to grow. At recent closing price of $ 28.76, HFC has a chance to add $ 3.41 or 11.86% in 52 weeks, based on mean target price ($ 32.17) placed by analysts.The analyst consensus opinion of 2.9 looks like a hold. It has a 36-month beta of 1.29 , so you might be in for a bumpy ride.
EPS Growth Rates
For the past 5 years, HollyFrontier Corporation’s EPS growth has been nearly -17.4%. Sure, the percentage is discouraging but better times are ahead as looking out over a next 5-year period, analysts expect the company to see its earnings go up by 53.6%, annually.
Is it turning profits into returns?
Two other important profitability ratios for investors to know are both returns-based ratios that measure a company’s ability to create wealth for shareholders. They are return on equity and return on assets. Return on equity measures is a company’s ability to turn an investor’s equity into profit. The higher the return on equity, the better job a company is at optimizing the investment made on shareholders’ behalf. HollyFrontier Corporation’s ROE is -5.26%, while industry’s is 9.24%. The average ROE for the sector stands at 11.58%.
Return on assets, on the other hand, measures a company’s ability to turn assets such as cash, buildings, equipment, or inventory into more assets. HFC’s ROA is -2.14%, while industry’s average is 3.97%. As with any return, the higher this number the better. However, it, too, needs to be taken into the context of a company’s peer group as well as its sector. The average return on assets for companies in the same sector is 6.29.